Share market today, The ongoing stock market decline has pushed the Nifty 50 index to the verge of recording its second-worst monthly losing streak in 30 years. Since its launch in July 1990, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) benchmark has only witnessed two instances of consecutive net losses for five or more months.
Nifty’s Monthly Losing Streak: Second Worst in 30 Years – Should Investors Be Concerned?
The current downtrend, which began in October 2024, is set to become the third such occurrence. So far in February, the Nifty has dropped 4%, with just three trading sessions left in the month. Over the last five months, the index has declined by 12.6%, falling from 25,811 at the end of September 2024.
Amid this downturn, one in every five Nifty stocks has plummeted over 28% in the past five months. Some of the biggest losers include Trent, Adani Enterprises, Asian Paints, BPCL, Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, and Tata Motors, with declines ranging from 31% to 33%.
Among the index heavyweights, Hindustan Unilever (HUL), ITC, and Reliance Industries have plunged 24%, 22%, and 18%, respectively. Meanwhile, only four stocks have posted gains during this period—Wipro, Bajaj Finance, and Kotak Mahindra Bank—rising between 6% and 9%.
Why Is the Current Market Decline Concerning?
One of the major concerns surrounding the ongoing market downturn is that, despite the Nifty slipping nearly 13% from its peak, the net loss remains relatively lower compared to the average declines observed in previous instances when the NSE benchmark recorded losses for four or more consecutive months.
Data from ACE Equity shows that the Nifty has registered a monthly losing streak of four or more months on five occasions in its 30-year history, excluding the present one. The average fall in the last five falls has been 26.8 per cent, which is more-than-double of what we have witnessed thus far in the current dip. The Nifty registered its biggest loss, down 31.4 during its longest monthly losing streak, spanning 8 months, in the period September 1994 – April 1995, data shows.
During the only other five-month losing streak—from July 1996 to November 1996—the Nifty plunged 26%. In fact, in each of the last five such instances, the index has declined by at least 21.8%. Historically, this suggests that the current downturn, though significant, remains relatively milder. Given the prevailing market conditions, the Nifty could be vulnerable to a deeper correction.
Mounting Concerns
The recent market slump has been exacerbated by Donald Trump’s tariff threats and their potential repercussions on the global economy. Analysts believe this uncertainty will likely weigh on market sentiment in the coming months.
“There is no clarity on Donald Trump’s stance regarding tariffs and the broader geopolitical landscape. The ongoing policy flip-flops and uncertainties are unsettling markets. Tariffs could also impact the US economy, keeping the US dollar in focus. Additionally, the US Federal Reserve may consider hiking interest rates, which would put further pressure on emerging markets,” said U.R. Bhat, co-founder and director at Alphaniti Fintech.
Beyond trade concerns, fears of stagflation in the US and persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) sell-offs are adding to market jitters. Since the beginning of 2025, FIIs have offloaded stocks worth ₹1.3 trillion—marking the worst sell-off in any comparable period.
Currently, the Super Trend line support for the Nifty on the monthly chart is positioned at 21,515, indicating a potential downside risk of 4.6% from current levels. Below this, the 50-Monthly Moving Average (MMA) stands at 19,150, while the lower end of the Bollinger Bands is at 18,500.
From a technical standpoint, the 22,500–22,400 zone has become a crucial support level for the Nifty 50 index in the near term, according to Osho Krishnan, Senior Analyst for Technical & Derivatives Research at Angel One.
“This level warrants close monitoring by traders and investors, as its ability to hold could dictate whether a rebound is possible or if further declines are imminent. Additionally, the presence of a bearish gap between 22,670 and 22,720 poses a significant hurdle for any recovery attempt. This gap is likely to act as a strong resistance level, potentially limiting the Nifty’s ability to regain momentum,” Krishnan explained.
