Unveiling top 10 expert investment strategies – January 2026
Our “Top 10 Ideas” publication posits ten of our highest conviction investment ideas. These are implementable ideas, refined from various opportunities we see around the globe and across a range of asset classes.
Idea #1 – Target Alpha as the cycle matures: As the cycle matures, equity returns are increasingly driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion. With policy rates near neutral and risk premiums compressed, broad beta offers less upside. This environment favours selective, fundamentally driven active strategies and alternative sources of alpha, including hedge funds, which can exploit higher volatility and dispersion
- Idea #2 – Follow the fiscal tailwinds: Fiscal policy is becoming a key growth driver globally. Europe, Japan, and China are deploying sizeable public spending to support infrastructure, defence, energy transition, and domestic demand. This strengthens opportunities in sectors aligned with government funding, industrial policy, and fiscal-led growth amid ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty
- Idea #3 – AI gets to work: software productivity beneficiaries: AI adoption is shifting from experimentation to productivity, with over one-third of companies now citing real use cases on earnings calls. Early cost savings are lifting margins, and even modest efficiency gains could materially boost earnings. Software platforms, data infrastructure, and workflow enablers are best positioned to capture durable value
- Idea #04 – Address high US concentration: A sharp USD pullback in early 2025 highlighted fiscal vulnerabilities and reliance on US assets. While US growth and AI leadership remain strong, Mag-7 dominance increases tech concentration risks. Diversification, hedging, and selective non-US exposure through currency diversification, multi-asset portfolios, and sector and geographical diversification, are increasingly important for resilient portfolios
- Idea #05 – Asia’s AI supply chain leadership: Asia underpins the global AI supply chain, with leadership across semiconductors, equipment, materials, and data-centre infrastructure. Dominance by Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan creates structural growth exposure, while China and ASEAN deepen the ecosystem. Attractive valuations vs. US peers position Asia as a high-conviction AI investment
- Idea #06 – Europe leads on bond fundamentals: European bonds offer a more attractive risk-reward than US credit, supported by lower net supply and healthier spread contribution to yields. Less crowded private credit ecosystem adds appeal. In contrast, heavy AI-related issuance tightens US credit conditions, while our expectation of 75bps in Base Rate cuts in the UK should create scope for further yield declines in UK bonds
- Idea #07 – Boost income through EM: EM assets are rebounding without signs of excess. Falling inflation and positive real yields support policy easing and returns. Asian equities offer rising dividend potential, while EM local-currency bonds and dividend strategies provide diversification. Together, they help us balance tech-heavy portfolios in a barbell approach
- Idea #08 – Real assets to shield from inflation: Tariffs and a tightening labour market are likely to keep US inflation near 3% next year, while growth remains resilient. This supports real assets, where inflation-linked income can protect portfolios. Opportunities span data-centre buildouts, US infrastructure tied to re-industrialisation, and defence-related investment in Europe
- Idea #09 – Financials have room to grow: Financials remain well positioned in H1 2026 as earnings visibility improves and downside risks stay contained. Credit quality is resilient, margins are stable, and fee income is growing. With easing deposit competition, improving capital markets activity, and reasonable valuations, the sector stands to benefit from a broadening market rally. Financials also offer good value style diversification to tech
- Idea #10 – Resurgence in M&A: M&A conditions are turning more supportive as policy uncertainty fades and financing conditions improve. Deal values are rebounding faster than volumes, signaling a return of larger transactions. Strong balance sheets, easing antitrust scrutiny, and renewed private equity activity point to sustained momentum through 2026
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What is the “Top 10 Expert Investment Strategies” report for January 2026?
The “Top 10 Ideas” report highlights ten high-conviction, implementable investment strategies identified by experts. These ideas are drawn from global opportunities across asset classes, regions, and themes shaping markets in early 2026.
What is the main investment theme for 2026?
As economic cycles mature, returns are increasingly driven by earnings growth, selectivity, and active alpha generation rather than broad market exposure. Diversification, fiscal alignment, AI productivity, and income resilience are central themes for 2026.
Why is targeting alpha more important as the cycle matures?
With policy rates near neutral and risk premiums compressed, broad beta offers limited upside. Selective active strategies, hedge funds, and alternative sources of alpha can better exploit higher volatility, dispersion, and fundamental differentiation.
How does fiscal policy influence investment opportunities in 2026?
Fiscal policy has become a major global growth driver. Large public spending programs in Europe, Japan, and China are creating opportunities in infrastructure, defence, energy transition, and industrial sectors aligned with government funding.
How is artificial intelligence impacting investment strategies?
AI adoption is moving from experimentation to real productivity gains. Software platforms, data infrastructure, and workflow enablers are benefiting from margin expansion and efficiency-driven earnings growth, making them key long-term investment opportunities.
Why is portfolio diversification away from the US important now?
High concentration in US assets and mega-cap technology stocks increases portfolio risk. Currency diversification, non-US exposure, and broader geographic and sector allocation help build resilience while still capturing global growth opportunities.
What role does Asia play in the global AI investment landscape?
Asia forms the backbone of the global AI supply chain, leading in semiconductors, equipment, materials, and data-centre infrastructure. Markets like Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan offer structural growth with attractive valuations relative to US peers.
Why are European bonds attractive in 2026?
European bonds offer stronger fundamentals than US credit, supported by lower issuance and healthier yield spreads. Expectations of rate cuts in the UK and less crowded credit markets improve the risk-reward profile for European fixed income.
How do emerging markets help boost portfolio income?
Emerging markets benefit from falling inflation, positive real yields, and policy easing. EM equities and local-currency bonds offer rising dividend potential and diversification, helping balance tech-heavy portfolios.
Why are real assets important for inflation protection?
Persistent inflation pressures from tariffs and labor market tightness make real assets attractive. Infrastructure, data centres, and defence-related investments offer inflation-linked income and portfolio protection.
What makes financial stocks attractive in early 2026?
Financials show improving earnings visibility, resilient credit quality, and stable margins. With easing deposit competition and growing fee income, the sector provides value diversification alongside technology investments.
Why is M&A activity expected to rebound in 2026?
Improving financing conditions, easing policy uncertainty, strong corporate balance sheets, and renewed private equity participation are supporting a resurgence in M&A, particularly larger deal sizes.
Add Business Connect magazine to your Google News feed
Read Also:
