Marking the final major release of the box office year, 20th Century Studios’ James Cameron threequel Avatar: Fire and Ash is poised to dominate cinemas worldwide. The film is tracking a massive $340 million to $380 million global opening weekend, positioning it as the clear market leader for the frame.
While this debut would fall short of 2022’s Avatar: The Way of Water, which delivered a $444 million like-for-like global launch, Fire and Ash is still set for an extraordinary start. At current projections, the film would secure the second-largest opening of the year for an MPA title, trailing only Disney’s Zootopia 2, which opened to $560.3 million last month, and narrowly ahead of the studio’s Lilo & Stitch, which debuted at $341 million.
International markets are expected to drive the bulk of the revenue, with overseas box office estimates ranging between $250 million and $275 million. By comparison, The Way of Water opened to $310 million in comparable overseas territories at today’s exchange rates.
The slightly softer opening relative to its predecessor is not cause for concern. The Way of Water benefited from a nine-day runway ahead of Christmas, whereas Fire and Ash enters the market with just five days, a factor likely to delay some audiences eager to secure premium seats and large-format screens for the film’s 3-hour-and-17-minute runtime. Additionally, the gap between the original Avatar and its sequel—spanning 13 years—played a role in inflating the earlier film’s debut figures.
Even so, Avatar: Fire and Ash is expected to reaffirm the franchise’s box office dominance, setting the stage for a powerful holiday run and a long theatrical tail worldwide.
Domestic presales for Avatar: Fire and Ash are currently tracking about 30% behind The Way of Water, which debuted to $134.1 million domestically—well ahead of the $77 million opening of the original Avatar in 2009. Based on current trends, a $90 million-plus North American opening for Fire and Ash remains firmly in play.
The marketplace, however, is more competitive this time around—particularly in North America—than it was during The Way of Water’s run. Strong counterprogramming is expected from Angel Studios’ animated faith-based title David ($20M–$25M), Lionsgate’s The Housemaid ($20M+), and Paramount’s SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants ($15M–$20M).
As is typical for an Avatar release, the real story lies beyond opening weekend. Holiday titles thrive on longevity, with 6x–8x box office multiples often defining success. This was the case with The Way of Water, which entered a Christmas corridor still reverberating from Spider-Man: No Way Home’s historic $260 million domestic debut and $600.5 million global opening a year earlier. Early tracking mistakenly compared Cameron’s sequel to Marvel-style front-loaded releases, inflating expectations to $180M+ domestically. Ultimately, The Way of Water delivered an exceptional 5.1x multiple in the U.S. ($688.5M) and a $2.34 billion global total, making it the third-highest-grossing film of all time.
In the U.S., Fire and Ash is opening in approximately 3,800 theaters, including 430 IMAX 3D screens, 1,050 premium large-format auditoriums (around 80% in 3D, including 175 Dolby screens), 380 D-Box/4D motion theaters, and 120 ScreenX locations. Preview screenings begin at 2 p.m. The film currently holds a 71% Rotten Tomatoes score, the lowest in the trilogy, compared with 81% for Avatar and 76% for The Way of Water.
International rollout begins today across major markets including France, Germany, Italy, and South Korea, followed on Thursday by Australia, Brazil, and Mexico. On Friday, the release expands to China, the UK, Japan, Spain, India, and additional territories. By the weekend, Fire and Ash will be playing in virtually every international market except Hong Kong, where it opens on January 8.
With 17 days of holiday breaks across many international territories—and even longer in some—Fire and Ash is expected to follow a slow-burn trajectory rather than a front-loaded run. Top overseas opening contributors are likely to include China, Germany, France, South Korea, the UK, Mexico, and India, assuming historical patterns hold.
In China, where the Avatar franchise has consistently overperformed, Fire and Ash is currently leading presales through Sunday and into early next week, though figures remain well below The Way of Water, standing at approximately 53.5 million RMB ($7.6 million). Limited previews begin Wednesday in the Cinity format, with premium large formats joining on Thursday before a full rollout on Friday.
James Cameron remains a revered filmmaker in China. The original Avatar earned over $200 million there in 2010—prior to the market’s explosive screen expansion—bringing its cumulative Chinese total to $262 million across multiple releases. The Way of Water concluded its China run at $247 million (at historical rates), despite launching during the country’s transition away from zero-Covid policies and widespread consumer hesitation. That sequel opened to $56.4 million and demonstrated the franchise’s trademark staying power.
Supporting the global launch, Cameron and the cast embarked on an extensive international promotional tour, with a high-profile premiere in Sanya, China, and red-carpet events in Paris, Milan, Madrid, Tokyo, London, Wellington, Mexico City, and Los Angeles.
Don’t underestimate the opening-weekend impact of David—at least for now.
Angel Studios’ animated faith-based feature is shaping up as a notable counterprogramming success. Playing in 3,100 theaters, the film has already amassed $14 million in presales, putting it on track for a $20 million to $25 million debut, ahead of Paramount’s fourth SpongeBob feature.
That early strength is largely driven by Angel Studios’ subscription model and fanship ticket sales, though distribution insiders believe that SpongeBob will ultimately outpace David over the full holiday corridor, which traditionally stretches through MLK weekend in mid-January.
Directed by Phil Cunningham and Brent Dawes, David begins previews at noon Thursday and chronicles the biblical figure’s journey from humble shepherd to anointed king, culminating in his legendary battle with Goliath.
Meanwhile, female audiences could arrive in force thanks to Lionsgate’s Paul Feig–directed thriller The Housemaid, starring Amanda Seyfried, Sydney Sweeney, and Brandon Sklenar. The film is targeting a $20 million-plus opening from 3,000 theaters.
Even if the debut lands in the high teens, the studio is banking on strong legs. Industry observers point to Sweeney’s 2023 rom-com Anyone But You as a precedent: that film opened to just $6 million pre-Christmas and went on to post a remarkable 14.7x multiple, finishing at $88.3 million domestic.
Housemaid currently holds a 78% Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes from 55 reviews and carries a net production cost in the mid-$30 million range.
Based on the first novel in Freida McFadden’s bestselling trilogy, the story centers on a wealthy woman (Seyfried) married to a tech executive (Sklenar), who hires a young woman living on the margins (Sweeney) as a live-in housemaid—events soon spiral in unexpected directions. Previews begin at 2 p.m. Thursday.
Paramount’s SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants is launching wide in 3,500 theaters, with previews starting Thursday at 4 p.m. In addition, North America hosts a special early-access 3D event today at more than 1,000 locations, allowing fans to see the film two days early at 5 p.m. local time, presented in 3D and RealD 3D.
Early-access ticketholders will also receive limited-edition collectibles, including a sticker pack and an exclusive print, while supplies last.
The franchise has a mixed theatrical history. The most recent installment, 2020’s Sponge on the Run, was heavily impacted by Covid, receiving a Paramount+ release alongside a limited Canadian theatrical run that grossed $4.8 million. The original SpongeBob SquarePants Movie opened to $32 million domestic in 2004, finishing at $85.4 million domestically and $141 million worldwide. The sequel, Sponge Out of Water (2015), marked a franchise peak with a $55.3 million opening, $163 million domestic total, and $325.1 million global haul.
FAQs on Avatar: Fire and Ash Box Office & Holiday Releases
What is the projected box office opening for Avatar: Fire and Ash?
Avatar: Fire and Ash is expected to open with a global weekend total of $340 million to $380 million, making it one of the biggest debuts of the year and the second-largest opening for an MPA title in 2025.
How does Fire and Ash compare to Avatar: The Way of Water?
The opening weekend is tracking below The Way of Water, which debuted at $444 million globally. However, Fire and Ash has fewer pre-Christmas days and is expected to perform strongly over the holiday period with long box office legs.
What is the expected domestic opening for Avatar: Fire and Ash?
Despite domestic presales running about 30% behind The Way of Water, analysts expect Fire and Ash to still open at $90 million or more in North America.
Why is the opening expected to be lower than the previous film?
The difference is attributed to:
Fewer days before Christmas (5 vs. 9)
More counterprogramming competition
Audiences delaying viewings to secure premium formats for the 3-hour-17-minute runtime
This is typical for Avatar films, which rely on long theatrical runs rather than front-loaded openings.
How many theaters is Avatar: Fire and Ash playing in?
In the U.S., the film is releasing in approximately 3,800 theaters, including:
430 IMAX 3D screens
1,050 premium large-format screens (mostly 3D)
175 Dolby auditoriums
380 D-Box/4D theaters
120 ScreenX locations
What is the Rotten Tomatoes score for Fire and Ash?
The film currently holds a 71% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes, the lowest in the Avatar trilogy, compared to Avatar (81%) and The Way of Water (76%).
When does Avatar: Fire and Ash release internationally?
The global rollout spans the entire week:
Wednesday: France, Germany, Italy, South Korea
Thursday: Australia, Brazil, Mexico
Friday: China, UK, Japan, Spain, India, and more
The film opens everywhere this weekend except Hong Kong, where it releases on January 8.
How is Avatar: Fire and Ash performing in China?
China presales are currently leading daily charts but remain lower than The Way of Water, with approximately 53.5 million RMB ($7.6M) through Sunday. Full-scale premium format releases begin Friday, with strong expectations for long-term performance.
Why are Avatar films expected to have strong box office legs?
Avatar releases traditionally benefit from:
Holiday moviegoing
Premium-format demand
Strong word-of-mouth
Past films have delivered 5x–8x box office multiples, prioritizing total gross over opening weekend numbers.
What other movies are competing with Fire and Ash this weekend?
Major counterprogramming includes:
Angel Studios’ David – Tracking $20M–$25M
Lionsgate’s The Housemaid – Targeting $20M+
Paramount’s SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants – Expected $15M–$20M
Is David outperforming SpongeBob at launch?
Yes, David has amassed $14M in presales and is expected to open ahead of SpongeBob. However, industry insiders believe SpongeBob will outlast David over the full holiday corridor through MLK weekend.
What is The Housemaid about and how is it tracking?
Directed by Paul Feig and starring Amanda Seyfried, Sydney Sweeney, and Brandon Sklenar, The Housemaid is a psychological thriller targeting a $20M+ opening. It currently holds a 78% Rotten Tomatoes score and is expected to show strong legs.
How has the SpongeBob movie franchise performed historically?
2004 – The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie: $141M worldwide
2015 – Sponge Out of Water: $325.1M worldwide (franchise peak)
2020 – Sponge on the Run: Impacted by Covid, limited theatrical run
The new installment is expected to benefit from holiday playtime and family audiences.
